It looks like we're in for a hot summer.

June, July and August in southern Manitoba will likely see above seasonal temperatures, Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips says, continuing a trend the Portage area has already seen throughout May with many days having temperatures 5 C above normal.

“I think that most people would probably say, 'if we could have what we've seen in May there'd be a lot of beer drinking and muscle shirt, tank top kind of weather,'” Phillip says. “And looking at our models for June, July and August, for western Canada it looks like it's going to be warmer than normal, and that includes southern Manitoba.”

Phillips explain southerly breezes will regularly push warm air masses over the province to produce more hot days this summer. Although we've already seen a record-setting day with a June 2 high of 34.1 C to surpass the previous record set in 1948 of 32 C, Phillips doesn't expect it will be a record-setting summer, but enough warmer days that will push the average above normal come September.

However, just to east of us in northern Ontario, Phillips says Environment Canada models can't predict whether the temperature will be cooler, average or warmer than normal. While he's confident in the accuracy of the outlook for Manitoba, Phillips says seasonal forecasting is far from an exact science.

“How much would I bet on the (forecast)? Maybe a few loonies,” Phillips laughs. “It's one of the toughest challenges of all of science to tell people the long term forecast. We can put a person on the the moon but can't necessarily give people a timely and accurate and credible seasonal outlook. We're getting better at it, but's it still a bit of a crap shoot.”

Still, Phillips is confident there will be many days Manitobans are reaching to crank up the air conditioner. And with that heat comes the risk of summer storms, something the Portage area got its first taste of Friday with a series of hail-producing systems passing through the region.

"Summer is about severe weather at times. You do get tornadoes, lightning strikes, hail storms and powerful winds,” Phillips adds. “It's important for people to realize that Manitoba is not just about winter severe weather; There is certainly your share of summer severe weather too.”

“It's just a matter of keeping an eye on the sky.”