While it may be cool and only several degrees away from a record low in some areas this morning, by the end of the long weekend we may be on the opposite end of things - a handful of degrees away from a record high.
You almost don't want to speak the words too loudly for fear Mother Nature will hear and change her mind, but as of right now, it's looking like the coming May Long weekend may be very sunny and feature seasonal to above average temperatures the entire weekend. Even the smoke in the area seems to have cleared out for the time being.
"Even though it's considered by many to be the unofficial kick-off to summer, rarely does May long feel summer-like," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner with a chuckle. "Southern Manitobans almost revel in the inconsistency, and usually at least one cold, rainy day plagues most Victoria Day weekends bring. Based on the current forecast models, we may not have much to complain about in the coming days, not that anyone is complaining about that."
Meanwhile, a low-pressure system that was over the province Thursday helped usher in well below-average temperatures for this time of year, with many locations not reaching double-digit highs. The system also brought on again, off-again showers throughout much of the region. The following rainfall totals are courtesy of Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network.
Holland - 3.8mm
Carman - 3.6mm
Morris - 2.9mm
Manitou - 2.7mm
Eriksdale - 2.5mm
Morden - 2.3mm
Elm Creek - 2.1mm
Alonsa - 2.0mm
Portage - 1.8mm
Steinbach - 1.8mm
Pilot Mound - 1.2mm
Winnipeg (airport) - 0.6mm
25mm = 1 inch
And with the rain now behind us, let's get to the hard-to-believe news of a three-day May long weekend without any precipitation.
"Trust me, I realize it's hard to believe, but with surface high-pressure building in today bringing a return to sunshine and drier conditions, we are starting off on the right foot," said Sumner. "With a northwesterly flow aloft continuing, that cooler air will moderate daytime highs Friday, maxing out around 19 to 21, but from there things only get warmer."
Sumner explained on Saturday, winds will shift southwesterly ahead of a weak low-pressure system from the west. Along with upper-level ridging in the atmosphere, temperatures will climb into the 24 to 26 range Saturday.
"Now as that low passes, winds will shift again to northerly, and we'll see highs cool a couple of degrees for Sunday, but not much," he noted. "Sunshine will continue, with highs in the 22 to 24 range. The southerly flow picks up again Monday, and that will push temperatures, potentially, toward 30 degrees for Victoria Day. Along with that, we'll also see a return of somewhat higher humidity values, as moisture is pumped into the area. That will set up the potential for some unsettled conditions mid next week, as a system from the west crosses into the province."
As for forest fire smoke, we can expect hazy conditions to return somewhat Friday and Saturday, but Sumner doesn't expect surface smoke to be a major concern.
"With that said, depending on just how much smoke is transported into our region by that upper northwesterly flow, we could see daytime highs a degree or two cooler than initially projected."