Just because this summer was warmer than normal for southern Manitoba, that does not mean we will pay for it with a harsh fall.
That message comes from David Phillips, Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada. Phillips says Canadians are known for thinking that a stretch of good weather will always be followed by a string of bad days.
"Particularly it's in Newfoundland where they get three good days in a row, and the fourth day they hide under the bed because they think nature is lurking around the corner," jokes Phillips.
Environment Canada has released its fall weather outlook for the months of September, October and November. Phillips says September is expected to be warmer and drier than normal. In fact, Environment Canada is forecasting the three month average to be milder than normal.
But, Phillips says that does not mean that every day in fall will be beautiful. He recalls last October, when hefty snowfall amounts and cold weather hit the region. Yet, that was not the case for the entire season.
Either way, Phillips says 90 per cent of the time we get our first frost before the end of September. Further to that, he says the first snow almost always comes before Halloween and often before Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, back in May, Environment Canada forecast the summer months of June, July and August to be warmer than normal for southern Manitoba. When looking back on those three months, Phillips now says the average temperature was almost two degrees warmer than normal. He says any way you look at it, the summer was persistently warm, noting the daytime highs were warmer than normal, while overnight lows were also warmer than normal. Phillips notes each of those months ended up being warmer than normal. This summer there were 15 days where the temperature eclipsed 30 degrees. In a normal summer there are eight of those days.
"Overall, I would bottle this particular summer," admits Phillips. "I think if you could get a repeat of that in other years, I'd go for it."
Phillips says the summer of 2020 will also be remembered for some of the wild weather in Manitoba. He notes the western part of the province had historic rainfalls and then there was the deadly tornado near Virden. Phillips says this was the first tornado in eleven years in Canada where multiple people died.