Major flooding could hit areas in the Portage la Prairie region this spring, the province's 2017 January Conditions Report forecasts.

The Lower Assiniboine River and Souris River were listed as currently at risk for major flooding, Infrastructure Minister Blaine Pedersen indicated today when releasing the conditions report. The Red, Souris, Pembina and Roseau Rivers also fell in the "major flooding" risk category. High soil moisture and winter precipitation to date, as well as future unfavourable weather conditions will create the increased flood risk.

"We have experienced some unusual winter weather to this point that has contributed to an expanded risk of overland flooding in Manitoba," Pedersen says in a release. "At this time, we need to be aware of the potential for flooding with the understanding that we have a couple more months of winter weather and the uncertainty of the spring melt rate. The Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre will continue to assess data over the coming weeks to refine future flood outlooks."

Doug McMahon, assistant deputy minister with Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation, says the expectation is the Portage Diversion will be utilized this spring. Lake Manitoba levels are at 812.5 feet above sea level, towards the upper end of the operating range. McMahon says that level is slightly lower than levels in 2011 -- when a major flood event occurred.

"The lake levels in Lake Manitoba are expected to rise moderately," McMahon explains. "We're going to be monitoring those levels closely going forward."

Minister Pedersen adds, this report is based on current outlook and could be affected by a variety of factors, including: the amount of additional snow and spring rain, frost depth at the time of runoff, the timing and rate of spring thaw and the timing of peak flows in Manitoba, other provinces and the U.S.

The first full flood outlook is expected at the end of February. The 2017 January Conditions Report is available here.