For the most part, the Saturday portion of our long weekend was quite nice with a calm wind and a temperature near the freezing mark. That all changed in the evening when the wind picked up and the temperature dropped in a hurry. Travelers also had to deal with blowing and drifting snow along with poor visibility.

snowy 240the scene on highway 240 south of Portage last night

Now, a series of several fast-moving low-pressure systems will continue Sunday night into Louis Riel Monday, with the final of three clippers over the last four days expected to drop the most snow, potentially 5-10cms.

“Late Saturday night into Sunday, many areas saw a couple of centimeters from a weak system that moved through, which was followed by a strong, gusty wind while many of us were still sleeping,” said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. “That’s what brought the snow we were looking at on our driveways this morning. As the cold front passed through, northwesterly winds picked up, and Arctic high pressure began building in, leading to the chilly wake-up call Sunday, with temperatures in the -18 to -22 range throughout Southern Manitoba. We’ll see a little recovery as we warm up during the day, but not much, with highs landing between -14 to -16, which is essentially ten degrees below average for this time of year.”

Average daytime highs for this point in February are -6 daytime and -16 overnight.

Sumner noted the wind will be relatively light for most of Sunday, which will help keep wind chill values in check during the day. The wind will also be light tonight and overnight into Monday as the next snow-maker arrives.

“As the next clipper moves across the northern U.S., diving southeastward into the Dakotas, we’ll see flurries and light snow develop late tonight, continuing overnight into Monday morning,” he explained. “Considering the light winds Sunday night, and overnight, blowing snow won’t be a concern, but based on projected snowfall rates, just how much snow is coming down may lead to some visibility reductions.”

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According to Sumner, at this point, the bulk of the snow will fall between the early morning hours of Monday and early afternoon, again noting total accumulations may push upward toward 10 cm.

“At this point, the heaviest band of snow is forecast to stay within central North Dakota, in a line west to east, but regions just north of that on our side of the border, particularly in the western Red River Valley toward southwestern Manitoba, will likely see 5-10cms of new snowfall accumulation,” added Sumner. “The snow will taper off to flurries in the afternoon, and as the low moves out of our region, northwesterly winds will pick up, gusting to 50 km/h. Louis Riel day afternoon and evening is when I’m expecting the highest probability of blowing snow impacts and reduced visibility.”

He explained how significant those impacts are will be contingent on where the strongest winds develop, more than likely the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, and whether those regions do, in fact, receive the snowfall forecast.

“This will be light snow, and considering we’re in line for 5cms or more, it won’t take much for that to start blowing, and visibility to be impacted, but again, the current timeline for that is Monday afternoon and evening.”

As we get back to work and school Tuesday, another round of chilly weather will begin, with another surge of Arctic air following closely behind this last system of the weekend. Highs Tuesday through Friday will be in the -19 to -23 range, and overnight lows of -30 will be in the cards for several nights this coming week.

“The long-range forecast models are indicating, though, this cold snap, may be relatively short-lived, with temperatures moderating by next weekend, (February 25th/26th),” noted Sumner. “Highs will still be several degrees below average for the end of the month, but potentially five to ten degrees warmer than what the work week is expected to be.”